According to the Mayan calendar, a new world, the Sixth world, was predicted to occur on December 24, 2011. The day we now say the world was "Awakened." Previous to that date, there was no magic in our world, at least none that we could freely utilize. Is the nature of magic to gradually increase, perhaps infinitely? Or is the nature of magic more akin to a sinusoidal wave, with a distinct up and down motion?

Most theorists agree that it is "life" itself that powers magic, that the "mana" energy that magicians draw upon to cast magic is a by-product, if you will, of life. If this is the case, then as populations grow, the power of magic shall grow too. Dr. Kleinford of the University of Munich theorized that on December 24, 2011, the earth, or "Gaia-sphere" as he referred to it, reached a sort of "critical mass" in which there was now enough "life energy" that magic suddenly became possible (see chart below).

It should reasonably follow, then, that high-population areas should have a greater incidence of magically capable individuals. We know this is not the case however. Cairo has one of the world's most dense cities in terms of population, but has the lowest incidence of magically active individuals of cities of similar population. Tir na nOg, on the other hand, is a relatively small nation, but has an unusually high incidence of magicians. According to Dr. Kleinford's theory, if again reasonably extrapolated, areas such as the Gobi desert, which is largely devoid of any life, should have relatively little in the way of available mana on the astral plane. Again, we know this not to be the case.

Using the Beacham-Davis Mana Scale, we can see a pattern that may tell us what the level of ambient mana really is. Dr. Clarissa Beacham and hermetic mage Michael Davis created this scale back in 2019 to give an accurate means of measuring available mana per cubic physical meter. To reflect the fact there was no mana available before 2012, it was decided that the scale should start at a positive whole integer, 1.0000, which was assigned to the year 2020, the first year measurements were taken in this fashion. Most scientists, even Dr. Beacham, acknowledge that the scale is relative, as they could not measure the amount of available mana on December 24, 2011. This fact has not kept most magicians and scientists from using the scale as a helpful tool.

On the Beacham-Davis Mana Scale, magic has been in a steady climb upwards (see chart B). Given that 2020 has a value of 1.0000, the 2057 measurement found available mana to be at 1.064 on the scale. And the increase has not been as even as once thought. The increase in ambient mana jumped during 2023 (1.0013), 2036 (1.0126) and 2050 (1.0413) and again in 2055 (1.055). As can be seen on the graph A, the ambient mana increase is an curve, with an increasing angle. With that in mind, it should be possible to calculate the amount of mana at the "Awakening." At this preliminary stage, however, there is simply not enough data to accurately predict what the "true" start point would be, or how the curve would slope. The existence of theorized "mana spikes" such as the Great Ghost Dance have further complicated matters, possibly accelerating the growth of mana, with unforeseen complications.

We might also look at the Mayan Calendar. According to Mayan long count, the "Sixth World," which was accurately predicted to start December 24, 2011. According to research by Dr. Johann Grunewald of Bonn University on the Mayan Calendar, the "Sixth World" is expected to end April 4, 7137.

If we assume for a moment that in 7137, when the cycle ends, that magic will disappear, a rough answer becomes clear. We can roughly predict how ambient mana will flow and change. We can even guess that during the year 4574, or close therein, the ambient mana level will peak. This also gives some credence to the anecdotal stories of magic being possible before the Awakening. It is entirely likely, if not possible, that the mana levels on December 24, 2011 simply reached a level where the majority of the expression of the Awakening were displayed, if we accept this sinusoidal wave nature of mana.

Given all the unknowns and variables, it would still appear that the nature of mana flow, and of magic, is at least similar to the flow and motion of a sinusoidal wave. What does this mean? For us, very little except as theoretical fodder for arguments. It does however hold several implications. A thousand years from now, our progeny may create feats with magic that we cannot even dream of. Perhaps magic will become so common place that everyone will be able to wield it's power. But it also means that, just as it started, magic will come to an end. It also brings a question to the table, perhaps the question with the most implications: What happened the last time the mana wave was positive?

--an address by Arthur Ruane, Thaumaturgical graduate student and research assistant, to the faculty of the Thaumaturgy Department of the University of Seattle.

>*sniff* *sniff* Oh, that's bulldrek I smell! How could these fraggers, Beacham and Davis, come up with this scale when terms like mana hadn't even been defined yet? I mean, Kano and White Eagle coined that term, among others, in 2035!
>Steam Train

>The only drek you're smelling is your own. Time to clarify a few things for those of you without formal magical training. First of all, Dr. Beacham was actually a chaos theorist, not to mention mundane. She had some theories and brought hermetic mage Michael Davis in to test them. And, I hasten to add, it was all done out of her shallow pocket. The University of Cal-Berkeley wasn't too happy about her freelance research, but as long as she kept up with official assignments, they let her play. Now, in her original studies, she didn't use terms like "mana." She called it something like "ambient trans-dimensional energies," or something equally forgettable. In 2041, Michael Davis, now with a Doctorate in Thaumaturgy from UCLA, rewrote Dr. Beacham's original theory with modern terms and modern knowledge and added his name to the scale. And Dr. Kleinford of Munich, despite still being a darling there, has a terrible rep outside Germany.
>the Dark Stranger

>I'll buy that. But humor this mundane for a minute. How do they come up with these numbers? It's not like they can just pour some mana into a test tube and measure it.
>St. Stan

>I'll field this one. It's really rather simple, but time-consuming. Part of it involves an uninitiated mage casting a whole slew of spells and checking the mage's body for signs of drain. Then there are tests involving the physical affect of spells and a number of tests involving spirits. Repeat. Repeat again. And at least one more time. It usually takes about a week to do all the tests. And since there aren't "mana-o-meters," all these tests try to give a scientific measurement to something that defies exacting measurement. And it all seems to work; they get pretty good numbers. I personally don't agree with the method, or the theory espoused by Ruane, but it's as good as any of the other crackpot ideas floating around out there.
>Devil's Lawyer

>Dr. Davis can still be found at UCLA. He's an old codger now, but Dean Garret lets him tinker and toy with all sorts of experimental magics. Every now and again, he comes up with something too.
>PJ

>I heard rumors, only rumors mind you, that the elves have known this "sinusoidal wave" stuff for years now. Can't prove it, but I don't doubt it.
>Anonymous

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